Indicator projection

Indicator projections are realised by extrapolating values from a time series in order to forecast likely trends. Projections are calculated within the IOER Monitor for the following selected indicators:

  • Ratio (%) of settlement area to reference area,
  • Ratio (%) of settlement area and transport space to reference area,
  • Ratio (%) of built-up settlement area and transport space to reference area,
  • Ratio (%) of agricultural land to reference area,
  • Ratio (%) of forest and copse to reference area

A linear trend for the years 2025 and 2030 is estimated for each of these indicators by means of regression analysis based on the previous annual indicator values (from 2008) for the respective spatial unit (from district level up). The mean basal topicality of the ATKIS data for the respective spatial unit is taken to be the independent variable (x-axis) while the indicator value of the respective spatial unit is the dependent variable (y-axis). The estimated values are only included in the indicator table if the correlation coefficient is r>0.75.